1-1-1: Why the NFL Quarterback (& Church Planting) Bust Rate is So High
Oct 27, 2026
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1 QUOTE
“When all around you is in chaos, you must be the hand that steers the ship. If you have a panic button, so will everyone else... We don't need celebrity quarterbacks. We need battlefield commanders.”
- Bill Parcells, NFL Hall of Fame Coach
1 NOTE
I love watching the NFL draft. I always chuckle when an NFL war room turns in their card. All of the assistant yell, cheer and pat each other on the back. Young, ambitious assistants hug the GM and tell him he is wiser than Solomon. (Below is a picture of the New York Jets after they drafted Zach Wilson in 2021). I have yet to see an NFL draft room make their pick and then hold their heads in despair. But the numbers say they should. Approximately 58% of first round NFL quarterbacks are busts.
What does the term QB draft-pick bust mean? An NFL first-round quarterback bust is a player drafted in the first round who fails to become a long-term franchise centerpiece. Only 4/10 quarterbacks will be signed to a second contract with the same team. A player busts because the team has spent huge draft capital on them, but they fail to become an elite battlefield commander. In many cases, they are not even consistent starters. The enormous resources spent (not to mention all the little kids wearing their jerseys) never meet the high expectations.
What does this have to do with planting churches? I received some super feedback on last week’s issue celebrating Andrew Morrell and his church planting reaching the 10 year anniversary milestone. A few people asked great questions about why 60% of church plants never make it to year 4. I think the answer is the exact same two issues that cause NFL general managers to draft a QB that never makes it their second contract: selection and development.
I will share a few thoughts on selecting and developing church planters (and Christian leaders in general) in the next two issues.

1 QUESTION
Does your NFL team have a history of stable quarterback play? Why or why not?
Bonus Question: If you are Jets fan, will you please forgive me for picking on your team's leadership? LOL!!
Until Next Tuesday,
John
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About the Author
John Teter is a pastor, mission leader, and author based in Long Beach, California. He's written four books on the topics of theology and evangelism, and a growing library of articles.
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